Global shipping is navigating ongoing disruption, with implications for dry bulk trades and supply chains. While demand remains steady, rising costs and shifting trade patterns are shaping market dynamics. This wrap highlights the key developments influencing the sector.
- Hormuz disruption impacts global shipping flows
- Dry bulk market holds steady
- Bauxite trade faces cost pressures
- Project cargo sector sees rising uncertainty
- Fuel availability concerns rise
UNCTAD Warns of Risks to Dry Bulk and Global Trade
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns for dry bulk-linked trades, particularly fertilizers, with around one-third of global seaborne volumes (16 million tonnes) passing through the route. This creates risks for agricultural supply chains and food security. The corridor also handles about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. According to UNCTAD, rising freight, fuel and insurance costs could further strain global trade flows and vulnerable economies.
Dry Bulk Market Shows Resilience Despite Supply Pressures
The dry bulk market has started the year strongly, supported by firm demand fundamentals. The Baltic Dry Index averaged 1,906 points in early 2026, significantly higher year on year. Strong iron ore and bauxite volumes continue to support Capesize earnings, with demand forecast to grow by around 1.9%. However, rising fleet expansion, with 42m DWT of deliveries expected, may weigh on market balance despite positive demand trends.
Bauxite Trade Faces Pressure as Freight Costs Rise
Rising freight costs are putting pressure on the Guinea–China bauxite trade, a key driver of Capesize demand. Freight rates have increased from the mid-$20s to above $30 per tonne, tightening export economics. Guinea accounts for over 40% of global supply, with exports reaching 183 million tonnes in 2025. Analysts note that higher costs, potential policy controls and price pressures are creating increased volatility across this critical trade.
Hormuz Disruption Leaves Project Cargo Sector in Limbo
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is creating uncertainty for breakbulk and project cargo markets, with around 1,000 vessels reported stuck in the waterway. Rising insurance costs, higher fuel prices and extended delays are affecting operations. Project cargo, accounting for 8–9% of vessel traffic, is particularly exposed due to its reliance on specialised vessels. Prolonged disruption could delay infrastructure and energy projects while increasing logistics complexity.
Fuel Availability Concerns Rise as Hormuz Disruption Continues
Concerns are mounting over global bunker fuel availability as the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists. Prices have already doubled, with very low sulphur fuel oil crossing $1,000 per tonne, while supply imbalances are emerging across regions. Availability, not just cost, is becoming a key concern, affecting voyage planning and contract commitments. Rising fuel costs may slow vessel speeds, reduce effective supply and create congestion at bunkering hubs.